Big Bets and Black Swans 2014
A Presidential Briefing Book
President Obama has just three years left in office to define his legacy in world affairs. He's facing a number of critical challenges—the ongoing war in Syria, the Iran nuclear negotiations, an enigmatic North Korea and other significant crises in world affairs. The president's advisors are busy devising policy recommendations aimed at grappling with these thorny issues. From these, the president must decide which priorities to pursue and how to best exercise U.S. power and influence to manage and shape the global order.
This book presents a set of policy analysis and recommendations from The Foreign Policy scholars at the Brookings Institution. Designed to provide the White House with innovative and actionable policy initiatives, the book is constructed as a series of memos to President Obama. This year, the memos are divided into five categories:
Big Bets are issues where the president should consider investing his power, time and prestige in major efforts that can have a transformational impact on America and the world. Double Downs are derived from the Big Bets from last year's recommendations that the president should redouble his efforts on.
Black Swans are those low-probability but high-impact events that can divert the president and his administration's higher purposes, such as dramatic negative events that he will want to take steps in advance to avoid or to mitigate their consequences.
Nightmares are events that look more likely than a Black Swan and could prove particularly troublesome for U.S. interests and the global order, and for which the administration should prepare.
Holds are updated policy recommendations to stay the course on approaches suggested last year.
Contents: Big Bets
Reassert U.S. Leadership of a Liberal Global Order by Robert Kagan and Ted Piccone
Secure the Future of the Internet by Peter W. Singer and Ian Wallace
Solidify the U.S.-Afghanistan Alliance by Michael E. O'Hanlon and Gen. John Allen (USMC, Ret.)
Lift the Ban on U.S. Oil Exports by Tim Boersma and Charles K. Ebinger
Strengthen Stability in Africa by Michael E. O'Hanlon
Broaden the Approach to Iran by Suzanne Maloney
Pursue Regime Change in Syria by Michael Doran
Return to the Asia Rebalance by Jonathan D. Pollack and Jeffrey A. Bader
Reach Out to Cuba by Ted Piccone
Avert Conflict in the South and East China Seas by Richard C. Bush III, Bruce Jones and Jonathan D. Pollack
Israeli-Palestinian Violence Erupts by Natan B. Sachs
Putin's Russia Goes rogue by Fiona Hill and Steven Pifer
Venezuela Breaks Down in Violence by Harold Trinkunas
Korean Crisis Prompts Confrontation with China by Jonathan D. Pollack and Richard C. Bush III
Iran Nuclear Talks Fail by Robert Einhorn and Kenneth Pollack
Afghanistan's Presidential Election Goes Awry by Vanda Felbab-Brown
Muslim Brotherhood Radicalizes by Daniel L. Byman and Tamara Cofman Wittes
Avoid a U.S.-Saudi Divorce by Bruce Riedel
Close the Deal on Free Trade by Mireya Solis
Manage the Impact of Climate Change by Elizabeth Ferris
Deepen Economic Ties to Turkey by Kemal Kirisci
Beyond New START by Steven Pifer
Title: Big Bets and Black Swans 2014
Author: Ted Piccone; Steven Pifer; Thomas Wright