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Modelling Uncertainty in Flood Forecasting Systems
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Like all natural hazards, flooding is a complex and inherently uncertain phenomenon. Despite advances in developing flood forecasting models and techniques, the uncertainty in forecasts remains unavoidable. This uncertainty needs to be acknowledged, and uncertainty estimation in flood forecasting provides a rational basis for risk-based criteria. This book presents the development and applications of various methods based on probablity and fuzzy set theories for modelling uncertainty in flood forecasting systems. In particular, it presents a methodology for uncertainty assessment using disaggregation of time series inputs in the framework of both the Monte Carlo method and the Fuzzy Extention Principle. It reports an improvement in the First Order Second Moment method, using second degree reconstruction, and derives qualitative scales for the interpretation of qualitative uncertainty. Application is to flood forecasting models for the Klodzko catchment in POland and the Loire River in France. Prospects for the hybrid techniques of uncertainty modelling and probability-possibility transformations are also explored and reported.
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Taylor & Francis; May 2004
184 pages; ISBN 9781135288778
Read online, or download in secure PDF format
184 pages; ISBN 9781135288778
Read online, or download in secure PDF format
Subject categories
- Academic > Geography > Physical geography > Hydrology. Water > Ground and surface waters > Rivers. Stream measurements
- Academic > Physical Geography > Rivers. Stream measurements > Floods
- Academic > Physical Geography > Rivers. Stream measurements > Flood forecasting
- Technology > Engineering > Civil
- Science > Earth Sciences
ISBNs
0203026829
9780203026823
9781135288761
9781135288778
9789058096944