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Simulating Nature

A Philosophical Study of Computer-Simulation Uncertainties and Their Role in Climate Science and Policy Advice, Second Edition

Simulating Nature by Arthur C. Petersen
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Introduction
Background
Framing of the Problem
Defining Computer Simulation and Positioning It in Science
Philosophical Approach
Brief Outline of This Study

Simulation Practice, Uncertainty, and Policy Advice
The Practice of Scientific Simulation

Introduction
The Simulation Laboratory
Elements of Simulation-Laboratory Practice
Plurality of Methodologies for Model Development and Evaluation
Plurality of Values in Simulation Practice
The Practices of Simulation and Experimentation Compared
Conclusion

A Typology of Uncertainty in Scientific Simulation

Introduction
Locations of Simulation Uncertainty
The Nature of Simulation Uncertainty
The Range of Simulation Uncertainty
Recognised Ignorance in Simulation
The Methodological Unreliability of Simulation
Value Diversity in Simulation Practice
The Uncertainties of Simulation and Experimentation Compared
Conclusion

Assessment of Simulation Uncertainty for Policy Advice

Introduction
The Sound Science Debate
The Challenge of Postnormal Science
The Role of Simulation Uncertainty in Policy Advice
The Guidance on Uncertainty Assessment and Communication
Conclusion

The Case of Simulating Climate Change
The Practice of Climate Simulation

Introduction
Functions of Climate Simulation
Varying Climate-Model Concreteness
The Sociopolitical Context of Climate-Simulation Practice
Evaluating the Plurality of Climate-Simulation Models
Conclusion

Uncertainties in Climate Simulation
Introduction
A General Overview of Uncertainty in Climate Simulation
Climate-Simulation Uncertainty and the Causal
Attribution of Temperature Change
Conclusion

Assessments of Climate-Simulation Uncertainty for Policy Advice

Introduction
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and Its Communication of Climate-Simulation Uncertainty
An Example of Exploiting Societal Perspectives to Communicate Climate-Simulation Uncertainty
Conclusion

Conclusions

Uncertainty Associated with Scientific Simulation
Differences and Similarities between Simulation and Experimental Uncertainty
Assessment and Communication of Scientific Simulation Uncertainties in Science-for-Policy
Uncertainty Associated with the Simulation-Based Attribution of Climate Change to Human Influences
Assessment and Communication of Attribution Uncertainty by the ipcc

References

Appendix: Proceedings and Discussion of the IPCC Contact Group
Meeting on Attribution, 20 January 2001, Shanghai

Index

CRC Press; April 2012
217 pages; ISBN 9781466500679
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Title: Simulating Nature
Author: Arthur C. Petersen
 
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