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Shaping the Next One Hundred Years
RAND Corporation 2003; US$ 9.95The checkered history of predicting the future-e.g., "Man will never fly"-has dissuaded policymakers from considering the long-term effects of decisions. New analytic methods, enabled by modern computers, transform our ability to reason about the future. The authors here demonstrate a quantitative approach to long-term policy analysis (LTPA). Robust... more...
Reorganizing U.S. Domestic Intelligence
RAND Corporation 2008; US$ 9.95One of the questions in the fight against terrorism is whether the United States needs a dedicated domestic intelligence agency separate from law enforcement, on the model of many comparable democracies. To examine this issue, Congress directed that the Department of Homeland Security perform an independent study on the feasibility of creating a counterterrorism... more...
The Emergence of Peer Competitors
RAND Corporation 2001; US$ 9.95This report presents a framework for intelligence analysts to use to think systematically about the potential for the rise of a peer competitor to the United States. Using exploratory techniques, the pathways of the various proto-peer and hegemon interactions are modelled. more...
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