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- Random House 2015; US$ 23.98
What if we could improve our ability to predict the future? Everything we do involves forecasts about how the future will unfold. Whether buying a new house or changing job, designing a new product or getting married, our decisions are governed by implicit predictions of how things are likely to turn out. The problem is, we're not very good at... more...
- McClelland & Stewart 2009; US$ 19.99
In the tradition of Malcolm Gladwell, Gardner explores a new way of thinking about the decisions we make. We are the safest and healthiest human beings who ever lived, and yet irrational fear is growing, with deadly consequences ? such as the 1,595 Americans killed when they made the mistake of switching from planes to cars after September 11. In... more...
- McClelland & Stewart 2010; US$ 21.00
In 2008, as the price of oil surged above $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200; a few months later it plunged to $30. In 1967, they said the USSR would have one of the fastest-growing economies in the year 2000; in 2000, the USSR did not exist. In 1911, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that... more...
- Ebury Publishing 2008; US$ 15.98
We are the safest humans who ever lived - the statistics prove it. And yet the media tells a different story with its warnings and scare stories. How is it possible that anxiety has become the stuff of daily life? In this ground-breaking, compulsively readable book, Dan Gardner shows how our flawed strategies for perceiving risk influence our lives,... more...
- Scribe Publications Pty Ltd 2011; US$ 23.99
For fans of Blink , The Tipping Point , and Freakonomics , here is a brilliant, funny, and accessible exploration of our flawed quest for certainty. In 2008, as the price of oil surged above $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200; a few months later, it plunged to $30. In 1967, they said the USSR would have one of the world?s fastest-growing... more...
- Ebury Publishing 2012; US$ 14.38
In 2008, as the price of oil surged above $140 a barrel, experts said it would soon hit $200; a few months later it plunged to $30. In 1908, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that turned out. Face it, experts are about as accurate as dart-throwing monkeys. And yet every day we ask them to predict the future... more...
- Crown/Archetype 2015; US$ 28.00 US$ 20.99
A New York Times Bestseller " The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow . " ? Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week?s meals. Unfortunately,... more...
- McClelland & Stewart 2015; US$ 34.95 US$ 25.99
From one of the world's most highly regarded social scientists comes a seminal book on forecasting that shows, for the first time, how we can all get better at making predictions. In Superforecasting , Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded... more...