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Macroeconomics

  • "Fiscal Devaluation" and Fiscal Consolidation: The VAT in Troubled Timesby Michael Keen; Ruud A. de Mooij

    International Monetary Fund 2012; US$ 9.00

    This paper focuses on two core tax design issues that arise in addressing current fiscal challenges. It first explores the idea, prominent in troubled Eurozone countries, of a "fiscal devaluation": shifting from social contributions to the VAT as a way to mimic a nominal devaluation. Empirical evidence is presented which suggests that in Eurozone countries... more...

  • "International Reserves in Low Income Countries: Have They Served as Buffers?"by International Monetary Fund

    International Monetary Fund 2012; US$ 9.00

    This paper provides a historical perspective on the role of international reserves in low-income countries as a cushion against large external shocks over the last three decades - including the current global crisis. The results suggest that international reserves have played a role in buffering external shocks, with the resulting macroeconomic costs... more...

  • "Leaning Against the Wind" and the Timing of Monetary Policyby Itai Agur; Maria Demertzis

    International Monetary Fund 2013; US$ 9.00

    If monetary policy is to aim also at financial stability, how would it change? To analyze this question, this paper develops a general-form framework. Financial stability objectives are shown to make monetary policy more aggressive: in reaction to negative shocks, cuts are deeper but shorter-lived than otherwise. By keeping cuts brief, monetary policy... more...

  • "Near-Coincident" Indicators of Systemic Stressby Ivailo Arsov; Elie Canetti; Laura E. Kodres; Srobona Mitra

    International Monetary Fund 2013; US$ 9.00

    The G-20 Data Gaps Initiative has called for the IMF to develop standard measures of tail risk, which we identify in this paper with systemic risk. To understand the conditions under which tail risk is present, it is first necessary to develop a measure of what constitutes a systemic stress, or tail, event. We develop such a measure and uses it to... more...

  • "Puts" in the Shadowby Manmohan Singh

    International Monetary Fund 2012; US$ 9.00

    In the aftermath of the Lehman crisis, payouts (i.e., taxpayer bailouts) in various forms were provided by governments to a variety of financial institutions and markets that were outside the regulatory perimeter - the "shadow" banking system. Although recent regulatory proposals attempt to reduce these "puts", we provide examples from... more...

  • "What Should Inflation Targeting Countries Do When Oil Prices Rise and Drop Fast?"by Nicoletta Batini; Eugen Tereanu

    International Monetary Fund 2009; US$ 9.00

    After a long period of global price stability, in 2008 inflation increased sharply following unprecedented increases in the price of oil and other commodities, notably food. Although inflation remained lower and growth higher in inflation targeting countries than elsewhere, almost everywhere price stability seemed in jeopardy as consumer prices kept... more...

  • (Not) Dancing Togetherby Vincent Belinga; Constant Lonkeng Ngouana

    International Monetary Fund 2015; US$ 9.00

    This paper provides estimates of the government spending multiplier over the monetarypolicy cycle. We identify government spending shocks as forecast errors of the growth rateof government spending from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) and from theGreenbook record. The state of monetary policy is inferred from the deviation of the U.S.Fed... more...

  • (Not) Dancing Togetherby Vincent Belinga; Constant Lonkeng Ngouana

    International Monetary Fund 2015; US$ 9.00

    This paper provides estimates of the government spending multiplier over the monetarypolicy cycle. We identify government spending shocks as forecast errors of the growth rateof government spending from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) and from theGreenbook record. The state of monetary policy is inferred from the deviation of the U.S.Fed... more...

  • The (Other) Deleveragingby Manmohan Singh

    International Monetary Fund 2012; US$ 9.00

    Deleveraging has two components--shrinking of balance sheets due to increased haircuts/shedding of assets, and the reduction in the interconnectedness of the financial system. We focus on the second aspect and show that post-Lehman there has been a significant decline in the interconnectedness in the pledged collateral market between banks and nonbanks.... more...

  • The (Peculiar) Economics of NCAA Basketballby T. McFall

    Palgrave Macmillan US 2014; US$ 92.76

    The economics of the NCAA Division I men's basketball league are peculiar because it fails to hire the best college-aged players and does little to enhance competitive balance within the league. The league's policy decisions and its ability to remain economically viable, despite its short-sighted governance decisions, are discussed. more...