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On the Sources of Oil Price Fluctuations

On the Sources of Oil Price Fluctuations by Deren Unalmis
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Analyzing macroeconomic impacts of oil price changes requires first to investigate different sources of these changes and their distinct effects. Kilian (2009) analyzes the effects of an oil supply shock, an aggregate demand shock, and a precautionary oil demand shock. The paper''s aim is to model macroeconomic consequences of these shocks within a new Keynesian DSGE framework. It models a small open economy and the rest of the world together to discover both accompanying effects of oil price changes and their international transmission mechanisms. Our results indicate that different sources of oil price fluctuations bring remarkably diverse outcomes for both economies.
International Monetary Fund; December 2009
28 pages; ISBN 9781452740973
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Title: On the Sources of Oil Price Fluctuations
Author: Deren Unalmis; Ibrahim Unalmis; D. Filiz Unsal