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The Outlook for Financing Japan's Public Debt

The Outlook for Financing Japan's Public Debt by Kiichi Tokuoka
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Despite the rapid rise in public debt and large fiscal deficits, Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields have remained fairly stable. Possible factors include: Japan's sizeable pool of household savings, presence of large and stable institutional investors, and strong home bias. These factors are likely to persist for some time, but going forward, the market's capacity to absorb debt is likely to diminish, as population aging reduces savings inflows and financial reforms enhance risk appetite. This could in turn strengthen the link between JGB yields and the stock of public debt. In light of these structural changes in the market, fiscal consolidation will be key for maintaining market stability.
International Monetary Fund; January 2010
24 pages; ISBN 9781452706665
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Title: The Outlook for Financing Japan's Public Debt
Author: Kiichi Tokuoka