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Expansionary Austerity New International Evidence

Expansionary Austerity New International Evidence by Daniel Leigh
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This paper investigates the short-term effects of fiscal consolidation on economic activity in OECD economies. We examine the historical record, including Budget Speeches and IMFdocuments, to identify changes in fiscal policy motivated by a desire to reduce the budget deficit and not by responding to prospective economic conditions. Using this new dataset, our estimates suggest fiscal consolidation has contractionary effects on private domestic demand and GDP. By contrast, estimates based on conventional measures of the fiscal policy stance used in the literature support the expansionary fiscal contractions hypothesis but appear to be biased toward overstating expansionary effects.
International Monetary Fund; July 2011
40 pages; ISBN 9781462387960
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Title: Expansionary Austerity New International Evidence
Author: Daniel Leigh; Andrea Pescatori; Jaime Guajardo