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Desynchronized: The Comovement of Non-Hydrocarbon Business Cycles in the GCC

Desynchronized: The Comovement of Non-Hydrocarbon Business Cycles in the GCC by Serhan Cevik
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This paper investigates the empirical characteristics of business cycles and the extent of cyclical comovement in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, using various measures of synchronization for non-hydrocarbon GDP and constituents of aggregate demand during the period 1990-2010. By applying the Christiano-Fitzgerald asymmetric band-pass filter and a mean corrected concordance index, the paper identifies the degree of non-hydrocarbon business cycle synchronization?one of the main prerequisites for countries considering to establish a monetary union. The empirical results show low and heterogeneous synchronization in non-hydrocarbon business cycles across the GCC economies, and a decline in the degree of synchronicity in the 2000s, if Kuwait is excluded from the sample, partly because of divergent fiscal policies.
International Monetary Fund; December 2011
25 pages; ISBN 9781463931117
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Title: Desynchronized: The Comovement of Non-Hydrocarbon Business Cycles in the GCC
Author: Serhan Cevik
 
ISBNs
1463931115
9781463927202
9781463931117
9781463997373