The Leading eBooks Store Online 4,363,412 members ⚫ 1,467,645 ebooks

New to eBooks.com?

Learn more

Chronicle of a Decline Foretold: Has China Reached the Lewis Turning Point?

Chronicle of a Decline Foretold: Has China Reached the Lewis Turning Point? by Mitali Das
Buy this eBook
US$ 9.00
(If any tax is payable it will be calculated and shown at checkout.)
China is on the eve of a demographic shift that will have profound consequences on its economic and social landscape. Within a few years the working age population will reach a historical peak, and then begin a precipitous decline. This fact, along with anecdotes of rapidly rising migrant wages and episodic labor shortages, has raised questions about whether China is poised to cross the Lewis Turning Point, a point at which it would move from a vast supply of low-cost workers to a labor shortage economy. Crossing this threshold will have far-reaching implications for both China and the rest of the world. This paper empirically assesses when the transition to a labor shortage economy is likely to occur. Our central result is that on current trends, the Lewis Turning Point will emerge between 2020 and 2025. Alternative scenarios┬Świth higher fertility, greater labor participation rates, financial reform or higher productivity┬Śmay peripherally delay or accelerate the onset of the turning point, but demographics will be the dominant force driving the depletion of surplus labor.
International Monetary Fund; January 2013
21 pages; ISBN 9781475525199
Read online, or download in secure EPUB or secure PDF format
Title: Chronicle of a Decline Foretold: Has China Reached the Lewis Turning Point?
Author: Mitali Das; Papa M N'Diaye