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Boosting Competitiveness to Grow Out of Debt—Can Ireland Find a Way Back to Its Future?

Boosting Competitiveness to Grow Out of Debt—Can Ireland Find a Way Back to Its Future? by Mwanza Nkusu
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This paper investigates the prospects for Ireland to grow its economy against the backdrop of high indebtedness. The paper uses vector autoregressive analysis to explore the interlinkages among competitiveness, exports, economic growth, and fiscal performance. The emerging conclusion is that Ireland, which has regained cost competitiveness following the crisis-driven fall in domestic prices, is poised to return to its path of strong exports and economic growth and lower imbalances provided that it maintains competitiveness, though a pickup in external demand is critical. Three main findings underpin this conclusion. First, external demand is an important driver of exports and also the single most important determinant of Ireland's GDP and government revenue. Second, declines in price competitiveness, featured by real effective exchange rate (REER) appreciations, restrain exports and economic growth. Third, exports boost output, which in turn enhances fiscal performance.
International Monetary Fund; February 2013
35 pages; ISBN 9781475521702
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Title: Boosting Competitiveness to Grow Out of Debt—Can Ireland Find a Way Back to Its Future?
Author: Mwanza Nkusu
 
ISBNs
1475521707
9781475521702
9781475547290
9781475563658