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A Bayesian-Estimated Model of InflationTargeting in South Africa

A Bayesian-Estimated Model of InflationTargeting in South Africa by Thomas Harjes
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This paper estimates a small dynamic macroeconomic model for the South African economy with Bayesian methods. The model is tailored to assessing the impact of domestic as well as external shocks on inflation within an inflation targeting framework, by incorporating forward-looking behavior of private agents and of the monetary authority. The model is able to display important empirical features of the monetary transmission mechanism that have been found in other studies. It helps to integrate the short-term inflation outlook into a consistent medium-term framework and to design the policy response for various shocks that affect inflation.
International Monetary Fund; February 2008
24 pages; ISBN 9781452775326
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Title: A Bayesian-Estimated Model of InflationTargeting in South Africa
Author: Thomas Harjes; Luca Antonio Ricci