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Vacation Over: Implications for the Caribbean of Opening U.S.-Cuba Tourism

Vacation Over: Implications for the Caribbean of Opening U.S.-Cuba Tourism by Rafael Romeu
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An opening of Cuba to U.S. tourism would represent a seismic shift in the Caribbean's tourism industry. This study models the impact of such a potential opening by estimating a counterfactual that captures the current bilateral restriction on tourism between the two countries. After controlling for natural disasters, trade agreements, and other factors, the results show that a hypothetical liberalization of Cuba-U.S. tourism would increase long-term regional arrivals. Neighboring destinations would lose the implicit protection the current restriction affords them, and Cuba would gain market share, but this would be partially offset in the short-run by the redistribution of non-U.S. tourists currently in Cuba. The results also suggest that Caribbean countries have in general not lowered their dependency on U.S. tourists, leaving them vulnerable to this potential change.
International Monetary Fund; July 2008
62 pages; ISBN 9781452794488
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Title: Vacation Over: Implications for the Caribbean of Opening U.S.-Cuba Tourism
Author: Rafael Romeu
 
ISBNs
1451914733
9781451870206
9781451914733
9781452794488