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A Simple Stochastic Approach to Debt Sustainability Applied to Lebanon

A Simple Stochastic Approach to Debt Sustainability Applied to Lebanon by E. H. Gardner
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This paper applies a simple probabilistic approach to debt sustainability analysis to the case of Lebanon. The paper derives "fan charts" to depict the probability distribution of the government debt to GDP ratio under a medium-term adjustment scenario, as a result of shocks to GDP growth and interest rates. The distribution of shocks is derived from the past shocks to these variables and the related variance covariance. Because we are interested in assessing the sustainability of a particular policy scenario, we do not consider independent fiscal policy shocks or the endogenous policy response to shocks.
International Monetary Fund; April 2008
23 pages; ISBN 9781452700656
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Title: A Simple Stochastic Approach to Debt Sustainability Applied to Lebanon
Author: E. H. Gardner; Julian di Giovanni
 
ISBNs
1451914121
9781451869583
9781451914122
9781452700656