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Fiscal Policy and Economic Cycles in Oil-Exporting Countries

Fiscal Policy and Economic Cycles in Oil-Exporting Countries by Kamilya Tazhibayeva
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This paper empirically assesses the impact of oil price shocks on the underlying non-oil economic cycle in oil-exporting countries. Panel VAR analysis and the associated impulse responses indicate that in countries where the oil sector is large in relation to the economy, oil price changes affect the economic cycle only through their impact on fiscal policy. Once fiscal policy changes are removed, oil price shocks do not have a significant independent effect on the economic cycle.
International Monetary Fund; November 2008
21 pages; ISBN 9781452798516
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Title: Fiscal Policy and Economic Cycles in Oil-Exporting Countries
Author: Kamilya Tazhibayeva; Aasim M. Husain; Anna Ter-Martirosyan