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A Small Quarterly Multi-Country Projection Model with Financial-Real Linkages and Oil Prices

A Small Quarterly Multi-Country Projection Model with Financial-Real Linkages and Oil Prices by Michel Juillard
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This is the third of a series of papers that are being written as part of a larger project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. In this paper, we estimate a small quarterly projection model of the US, Euro Area, and Japanese economies that incorporates oil prices and allows us to trace out the effects of shocks to oil prices. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques. We show how the model can be used to construct efficient baseline forecasts that incorporate judgment imposed on the near-term outlook.
International Monetary Fund; December 2008
74 pages; ISBN 9781452735955
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Title: A Small Quarterly Multi-Country Projection Model with Financial-Real Linkages and Oil Prices
Author: Michel Juillard; Charles Freedman; Dmitry Korshunov; Douglas Laxton; Ondra Kamenik; Ioan Carabenciov; Igor Ermolaev; Jared Laxton
 
ISBNs
1451999356
9781451871388
9781451999358
9781452735955