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A Small Quarterly Projection Model of the US Economy by Igor Ermolaev
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This is the first of a series of papers that are being written as part of a project to estimate a small quarterly Global Projection Model (GPM). The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. In this paper, we estimate a small quarterly projection model of the U.S. economy. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques, which provide a very efficient way of imposing restrictions to produce both plausible dynamics and sensible forecasting properties. After developing a benchmark model without financial-real linkages, we introduce such linkages into the model and compare the results with and without linkages.
International Monetary Fund; December 2008
54 pages; ISBN 9781452739991
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Title: A Small Quarterly Projection Model of the US Economy
Author: Igor Ermolaev; Michel Juillard; Ioan Carabenciov; Charles Freedman; Douglas Laxton; Ondra Kamenik; Dmitry Korshunov