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Benford's Law and Macroeconomic Data Quality

Benford's Law and Macroeconomic Data Quality by Jesus Gonzalez-Garcia
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This paper examines the usefulness of testing the conformity of macroeconomic data with Benford's law as indicator of data quality. Most of the macroeconomic data series tested conform with Benford's law. However, questions emerge on the reliability of such tests as indicators of data quality once conformity with Benford's law is contrasted with the data quality ratings included in the data module of the Reports on the Observance of Standards and Codes (data ROSCs). Furthermore, the analysis shows that rejection of Benford's law may be unrelated to the quality of statistics, and instead may result from marked structural shifts in the data series. Hence, nonconformity with Benford's law should not be interpreted as a reliable indication of poor quality in macroeconomic data.
International Monetary Fund; January 2009
22 pages; ISBN 9781452791449
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Title: Benford's Law and Macroeconomic Data Quality
Author: Jesus Gonzalez-Garcia; Gonzalo C. Pastor