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Forecasting Inflation in Sudan

Forecasting Inflation in Sudan by Kenji Moriyama
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This paper forecasts inflation in Sudan following two methodologies: the Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) model and by looking at the leading indicators of inflation. The estimated ARMA model remarkably tracks the actual inflation during the sample period. The Granger causality test suggests that private sector credit and world wheat prices are the leading indicators explaining inflation in Sudan. Inflation forecasts based on both approaches suggest that inflationary pressures for 2009 and 2010 will be modest and that inflation will remain in single-digits, assuming that prudent macroeconomic policies are maintained.
International Monetary Fund; June 2009
25 pages; ISBN 9781452738970
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Title: Forecasting Inflation in Sudan
Author: Kenji Moriyama; Abdul Naseer
 
ISBNs
1451917082
9781451872798
9781451917086
9781452738970