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The Black Swan

The Impact of the Highly Improbable

The Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb
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What have the invention of the wheel, Pompeii, the Wall Street Crash, Harry Potter and the internet got in common? Why are all forecasters con-artists? What can Catherine the Great's lovers tell us about probability? Why should you never run for a train or read a newspaper? This book is all about Black Swans: the random events that underlie our lives, from bestsellers to world disasters. Their impact is huge; they're impossible to predict; yet after they happen we always try to rationalize them. A rallying cry to ignore the 'experts', The Black Swan shows us how to stop trying to predict everything - and take advantage of uncertainty.
Penguin Books Ltd; April 2008
480 pages; ISBN 9780141906201
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Title: The Black Swan
Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
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