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Forecast Errors and Uncertainty Shocks

Forecast Errors and Uncertainty Shocks by Sylwia Nowak
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Macroeconomic forecasts are persistently too optimistic. This paper finds that commonfactors related to general uncertainty about U.S. macrofinancial prospects and global demanddrive this overoptimism. These common factors matter most for advanced economies and G-20 countries. The results suggest that an increase in uncertainty-driven overoptimism hasdampening effects on next-year real GDP growth rates. This implies that incorporating thecommon structure governing forecast errors across countries can help improve subsequentforecasts.
International Monetary Fund; November 2016
15 pages; ISBN 9781475555530
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Title: Forecast Errors and Uncertainty Shocks
Author: Sylwia Nowak; Pratiti Chatterjee