This handy reference introduces the subject of forecast verification and provides a review of the basic concepts, discussing different types of data that may be forecast.
Each chapter covers a different type of predicted quantity (predictand), then looks at some of the relationships between economic value and skill scores, before moving on to review the key concepts and summarise aspects of forecast verification that receive the most attention in other disciplines.
The book concludes with a discussion on the most important topics in the field that are the subject of current research or that would benefit from future research.
- An easy to read guide of current techniques with real life case studies
- An up-to-date and practical introduction to the different techniques and an examination of their strengths and weaknesses
- Practical advice given by some of the world?s leading forecasting experts
- Case studies and illustrations of actual verification and its interpretation
- Comprehensive glossary and consistent statistical and mathematical definition of commonly used terms
Wiley; August 2003
- ISBN: 9780470864418
- Edition: 1
- Read online, or download in secure PDF format
- Title: Forecast Verification
- Author: Ian T. Jolliffe (ed.); David B. Stephenson (ed.)
About The Author
Professor Ian Jolliffe is currently a Honorary Visiting Professor in SECaM. He took early retirement in 2004 form the University of Aberdeen, where he is Professor Emeritus and where he spent 12 years as Professor of Statistics before his retirement. Before Aberdeen, he was Lecturer, then Senior Lecturer in Statistics at the University of Kent for 22 years, apart from two one-year visiting posts at the Dalhousie University and the University of Guelph.
He gained his PhD in Statistics in 1970, and has been an active teacher and researcher in Applied Statistics since then. His thesis was on variable selection in principal component analysis (PCA), and topics related to PCA have formed a substantial strand of his research throughout his career.
He has a long-standing interest in applications of Statistics to atmospheric science, and forecast verification is now one of his main research interests. He has co-authored two other books and has over 85 other publications; roughly one third of these are directly related to applications in climate or weather. He has successfully supervised 20 research students, 16 of them at PhD level.