Providing a panoramic overview of the evolving world of scenario planning, this Advanced Introduction uses topical case studies to analyze the developing methodologies of scenario planning. Written by Paul J.H. Schoemaker, a leading authority on the topic, this book synthesizes rigorous theory and practical experiences including best practises, normative views, and future challenges or opportunities for scenario planning.
Explains why future uncertainties require more than traditional risk analysis when ambiguous unknowns or Black Swans are involved
Illustrates scenario planning through an in-depth case analysis of the biosciences which, in the wake of global pandemics, are gaining in societal import
Examines how historical thinking and historiography can enrich scenarios by revisiting future projections made for South Africa post-apartheid
Shows why scenario planning fosters critical and creative thinking by overcoming myopic framing, overconfidence and other biases in organizations
Examines methodological and statistical techniques in scenario planning, including model building and simulations, and their connections to strategy formulation
Interdisciplinary in its approach, this Advanced Introduction will prove invaluable to students and scholars of public policy, business management, and organizational studies. Its tools and practical advice will also be a vital resource to practitioners and policy leaders involved in leading or implementing scenario planning in their organizations.
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