How to Anticipate Forcing Events and Wild Cards in Global Politics


Several kinds of unanticipated scenarios—particularly those of low probability and high impact—have the potential to escalate into systemic crises. Even positive surprises can be major policy challenges. Anticipating and managing low-probability events is a critically important challenge to contemporary policymakers, who increasingly recognize that they lack the analytical tools to do so. Developing such tools is the focus of this insightful and perceptive volume, edited by renowned author Francis Fukuyama and sponsored by The American Interest magazine.
  • Brookings Institution Press; October 2007
  • ISBN: 9780815729891
  • Title: Blindside
  • Author: Francis Fukuyama (ed.)
  • Imprint: Brookings Institution Press