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  • The Volatility Trap: Precautionary Saving, Investment, and Aggregate Riskby Reda Cherif; Fuad Hasanov

    International Monetary Fund 2012; US$ 9.00

    We study the effects of permanent and temporary income shocks on precautionary saving and investment in a "store-or-sow" model of growth. High volatility of permanent shocks results in high precautionary saving in the safe asset and low investment, or a "volatility trap." Namely, big savers invest relatively little. In contrast, low volatility of permanent... more...

  • Public Debt Dynamics: The Effects of Austerity, Inflation, and Growth Shocksby Fuad Hasanov; Reda Cherif

    International Monetary Fund 2012; US$ 9.00

    We study how macroeconomic shocks affect U.S. public debt dynamics using a VAR with debt feedback. Following a fiscal austerity shock, the debt ratio initially declines and then returns to its pre-shock path. Yet, the effect is not statistically significant. In a weak economic environment, the likelihood of a self-defeating austerity shock is much... more...

  • Global Imbalances and Petrodollarsby Fuad Hasanov; Rabah Arezki

    International Monetary Fund 2009; US$ 9.00

    Oil exporters have run large current account surpluses. We explore oil exporters' role in our understanding and the resolution of global imbalances. Current account dynamics are estimated for oil-exporting countries and the rest of the world. We find that fiscal policy has a much stronger effect on current account of oil exporters than on current account... more...

  • The Leap of the Tigerby Reda Cherif; Fuad Hasanov

    International Monetary Fund 2015; US$ 9.00

    Only a few European economies and Korea and Taiwan Province of China reached high-income status during 1970-2010. Malaysia’s real income per capita increased to 26 percent of the U.S. level in 2010 from 20 percent in 1970. Despite relatively strong growth and a substantial improvement in export sophistication, Malaysia’s total factor productivity lagged... more...

  • The Leap of the Tigerby Reda Cherif; Fuad Hasanov

    International Monetary Fund 2015; US$ 9.00

    Only a few European economies and Korea and Taiwan Province of China reached high-incomestatus during 1970-2010. Malaysia's real income per capita increased to 26 percent ofthe U.S. level in 2010 from 20 percent in 1970. Despite relatively strong growth and asubstantial improvement in export sophistication, Malaysia's total factor productivity laggedbehind... more...

  • Breaking the Oil Spellby Reda Cherif; Fuad Hasanov; Min Zhu

    International Monetary Fund 2016; US$ 20.00

    The “Gulf Falcons”—the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council—have high living standards as a result of large income flows from oil. The decline of oil prices between summer 2014 and fall 2015 underscores the urgency for the Gulf Falcons to diversify away from their current heavy reliance on oil exports. This book discusses attempts at diversification... more...

  • Riding the Energy Transitionby Reda Cherif; Fuad Hasanov; Aditya Pande

    International Monetary Fund 2017; US$ 9.00

    Recent technological developments and past technology transitions suggest that the worldcould be on the verge of a profound shift in transportation technology. The return of the electriccar and its adoption, like that of the motor vehicle in place of horses in early 20th century,could cut oil consumption substantially in the coming decades. Our analysis... more...

  • Sharp Instrument: A Stab at Identifying the Causes of Economic Growthby Reda Cherif; Fuad Hasanov; Lichen Wang

    International Monetary Fund 2018; US$ 9.00

    We shed new light on the determinants of growth by tackling the blunt and weak instrument problems in the empirical growth literature. As an instrument for each endogenous variable, we propose average values of the same variable in neighboring countries. This method has the advantage of producing variable-specific and time-varying—namely, “sharp”—and... more...

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